Trump's Prophecy of a 20-25% Market Crash Over Iran War May Still Come True

US President Donald Trump had previously stated publicly that an armed conflict with Iran could send the American stock market down 20-25%. Since then, markets have weathered several waves of turbulence tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East, though a full-scale crash of that magnitude hasn't occurred. Nonetheless, analysts warn the geopolitical risks haven't disappeared—the conflict remains simmering, and any fresh escalation could trigger a sharp reassessment of risk by investors. Experts point to a historical pattern: markets often underestimate the long-term consequences of protracted geopolitical crises, reacting to them with a lag. For investors, this serves as a reminder to stay vigilant and factor in a geopolitical risk premium when building their portfolios.